Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
